The domestic box office is gearing up for a massive Thanksgiving weekend, potentially the largest since the pandemic era, driven by the release of Moana 2 and strong performances from Wicked and Gladiator II. Analysts predict the five-day holiday period could generate over $200 million in ticket sales, with a chance to rank among the highest-grossing Thanksgiving weekends in cinematic history.
Disney’s highly anticipated Moana 2 is set to debut on Wednesday, with projections estimating a domestic haul between $120 million and $150 million by Sunday. The animated sequel will be joined by Universal’s Wicked and Paramount’s Gladiator II, both entering their second week of screenings and continuing to attract large audiences.
The holiday box office has not surpassed $200 million since 2019, according to Comscore. The current record for Thanksgiving weekend is held by 2018, which saw Ralph Breaks the Internet, Creed II, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald collectively bring in $315 million. The second-highest total came in 2013 with $294.2 million in revenue.
Thanksgiving is a pivotal moment for the film industry, often setting the tone for the year-end box office performance. With Moana 2 leading a trifecta of family-friendly and action-packed titles, this year’s holiday period could deliver a significant boost to the industry after years of struggles.
Disney Aims for a Comeback
Disney, long dominant during Thanksgiving weekends, is looking for a return to form after recent underwhelming performances. Historically, Disney has thrived during this holiday period, with films like Frozen II pulling in $125 million in 2019 and Ralph Breaks the Internet earning $84.8 million in 2018. However, the pandemic-era releases Encanto ($40.6 million in 2021), Strange World ($18.9 million in 2022), and Wish ($31.6 million in 2023) fell short of expectations.
Moana 2 is expected to outperform these recent titles, thanks to its strong brand recognition and the success of the original Moana, which remains a fan favorite among kids and families. The sequel follows a year after the first film was recognized as the top-streamed family movie and comes on the heels of Disney and Pixar’s Inside Out 2, which opened to $154.2 million domestically and grossed over $1 billion worldwide.
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